《大行》高盛升東亞(00023.HK)目標價至11.8元兼上調盈測 評級「沽售」
阿思達克 08-22 11:00
高盛研究報告指出，東亞銀行(00023.HK)上半年收入符合該行預估，淨利息收入和費用收入低於預期，但被交易收益抵銷；每股盈利超該行預期14%。東亞上半年派息比率為45%(高盛預估為47%)，中期息39港仙，比高盛預估的35港仙高出約10%。
報告引述東亞管理層預計2025年下半年淨息差將面臨逆風，且對貸款增長保持保守態度。高盛預計東亞2025至27財年貸款按年分別增長2.1%、2.8%及4%，各年存款增長預估則分別上調至5.5%、3.9%及2.9%(此前為增4%、跌0.1%及跌0.2%)。
高盛又假設本輪降息週期淨息差對HIBOR的敏感度(NIM beta)為0.16倍，低於2022年上半年至2024年下半年的0.17倍，因此高盛預測東亞2025至2027財年淨息差(NIM)分別為1.78%、1.8%及1.75%，對應淨利息收入按年分別料跌15%、增5%及增0.4%。高盛對東亞2025至27財年淨利息收入預估分別降3%、降1%及增2%。此外，考慮到交易收入的超預期表現，高盛又將東亞2025至27財年各年非利息收入預估分別上調11%、8%及6%。整體而言，高盛對東亞2025至27財年各年收入預測分別增1%、1%及3%。
高盛又預計東亞今年信貸成本為97個基點，2026及2027財年將逐漸正常化至80個及55個基點(相較於過去10年平均76個基點)。預計2025至2027財年派息比率分別為46%、49%及51%，意味著未來三年平均派息比率為49%(相較於過去五年平均約40%)。
整體而言，高盛將東亞2025至27財年各年每股盈測上調8%、11%及24%，目標價上調12%，從10.5港元上調至11.8港元，評級「沽售」。
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