《大行》花旗料東亞(00023.HK)下半年收入及信貸成本續承壓 評級「中性」
花旗研究報告指出,東亞銀行(00023.HK)管理層對香港商業房地產(CRE)前景保持謹慎,並表示2025年下半年可能出現客戶評級下調的情況,但管理層指出香港CRE貸款組合具有高擔保比率和健康的貸款價值比率(LTV)。2025財年信貸成本預計與2024財年持平,意味2025年下半年信貸成本將持續高企。花旗予東亞銀行目標價11.6元,評級「中性」。
報告表示,儘管近期HIBOR有所反彈,今年下半年淨利息收入(NII)仍可能按半年下降,集團最新淨利差爲1.67%,低於2025年上半年的1.88%。非利息收入在下半年可能保持強勁,但難以完全抵消淨利息收入下降的影響,認爲短期內資本回報的上行空間有限,因管理層爲未來不確定性保留了資本緩衝。
花旗表示,東亞銀行在今年上半年報告了25億港元的減值支出,其中70%與內地及香港CRE相關,花旗估計東亞內地商業地產不良貸款比率約爲20%,不良貸款覆蓋率爲46%。香港CRE不良貸款比率爲7.5%(相較於2024年下半年的約6%),不良貸款覆蓋率爲15%。香港CRE擔保貸款組合的平均貸款價值比爲55%(相較於2024年下半年的53%),超過90%的擔保敞口貸款價值比低於70%。2025財年信貸成本預計與2024財年持平,受到客戶進一步評級下調、抵押品價值下降或內地CRE貸款進一步重組的推動。
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