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《大行》高盛對潤啤(00291.HK)市場份額增長保持樂觀 升目標價至37元 評級「買入」
高盛研究報告指出,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)今年上半年核心息稅前利潤超出預期,因成本利好及營運效率提升;該行又參加了潤啤的財報簡報會,表示雖然宏觀環境仍不穩定且通縮風險持續存在,但對潤啤在高端化、市場份額增長及效率提升方面的強勁執行力保持樂觀。高盛預期潤啤的啤酒業務在2025下半年將實現溫和連續加速,政策影響逐步正常化;而白酒業務在下半年可能仍構成潛在拖累。 高盛將潤啤2025至2027年經常性每股盈利預測上調5%至6%,以反映以下因素:啤酒業務上,將2025至2027年啤酒銷售預估上調0.4%至2.3%,因原材料成本持續緩解及銷售費用控制得宜,毛利率展望更佳。高盛預期經常性銷售及行政費用降低,銷售費用減少,但經常性行政費用增加。因此,高盛將潤啤2025至2027年經常性息稅前利潤預估上調6.1%至6.3%;白酒業務:因政策負面影響,高盛下調銷售預估2%至6.7%,但預期毛利率將改善,也預期銷售及行政費用增加,因行政費用上升,但被銷售費用下降所抵消;集團整體:高盛現預期2025年銷售增長3.2%,經常性息稅前利潤增長11.9%(啤酒經常性息稅前利潤增長18.2%) 高盛對潤啤12個月目標價現爲37港元(之前爲35港元),基於不變的19倍2026年預估市盈率,折現0.5年;重申「買入」評級。
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