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《大行》里昂料潤啤(00291.HK)半年延續增長趨勢 目標價升至33.2元 評級「跑贏大市」
阿思達克 08-20 11:14
里昂發表研究報告指出,華潤啤酒(00291.HK)2025上半年啤酒銷量增長優於行業,預期增長趨勢在下半年持續,儘管白酒復甦可能需要時間。該行亦預期下半年利潤率繼續擴張,並將2025年淨利預測上調7%,反映更好的毛利率趨勢及一次性土地處置收益。 里昂將潤啤目標價從30.4元上調至33.2元,採用啤酒業務9倍12個月遠期EV/EBITDA及白酒業務10倍市盈率估值(倍數不變);維持「跑贏大市」評級。 里昂表示,潤啤上半年啤酒銷量增長2.2%,優於行業平均下降0.3%,受喜力增長20%以上、老雪增長70%以上、Amstel(紅爵)增長100%以上及中高端及以上產品銷量實現中高單位數增長推動。里昂預期這一趨勢在下半年持續,料2025年啤酒收入按年增長2.8%;並預期白酒銷售在下半年繼續按年下降,因反腐措施持續施壓,白酒銷售復甦需時。 里昂又指出,上半年啤酒毛利率按年改善2.5個百分點,高於該行預期,受益於原材料價格下降及成本節約。由於全年原材料價格已鎖定且成本節約持續,里昂預期這一趨勢在下半年繼續,且銷售及行政費用比率將因效率提升而下降。里昂預測2025年核心息稅前利潤按年增長15%,淨利按年增長26%。
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