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大行評級|瑞銀:預計HIBOR將在第三季底穩定在2%至2.5% 香港銀行股首選中銀香港
瑞銀髮表研究報吿,預計HIBOR將在第三季底穩定在2%至2.5%。在中短期(3至6個月)內,中銀香港仍是該行所覆蓋的香港銀行股首選,但預計短期內股價可能有所回落。該行對中銀香港和東亞銀行持“中性”評級,對恒生銀行評級則為“沽售”。瑞銀指,雖然HIBOR反彈有利於銀行的淨息差和淨利息收入,但認為市場已預期HIBOR在今年餘下時間穩定在2%至2.5%。該行預計第三季淨利息收入的壓縮壓力將高於第二季,因為第二季的負面影響僅持續約一個月,且隨着利率上升,貸款需求可能再次疲軟。該行認為在5至6月貸款餘額增長2%後,增長勢頭能否持續仍需觀察。對於2025年的預測,該行預計中銀香港、恒生銀行和東亞銀行的淨利息收入將分別下降7%、9%和11%。
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