You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》瑞銀料第三季底HIBOR穩定在2%至2.5% 重申對港商業地產風險持謹慎態度
瑞銀髮表有關港銀研究報告,預計HIBOR將在第三季底穩定在2%至2.5%。在中短期(3至6個月)內,中銀香港(02388.HK)仍是該行所覆蓋的本地香港銀行首選,但預計短期內股價可能有所回落。該行對中銀香港和東亞(00023.HK)持「中性」評級,對恆生評級則爲「沽售」。 瑞銀指,雖然HIBOR反彈有利於銀行的淨息差和淨利息收入,但認爲市場已預期HIBOR在今年餘下時間穩定在2%至2.5%。對於本地銀行,該行預計第三季淨利息收入的壓縮壓力將高於第二季,因爲第二季的負面影響僅持續約一個月,且隨着利率上升,貸款需求可能再次疲軟。該行認爲在5至6月貸款餘額增長2%後,增長勢頭能否持續仍需觀察。對於2025年的預測,該行預計中銀香港、恆生銀行和東亞銀行的淨利息收入將分別下降7%、9%和11%。 該行重申對香港商業地產風險的謹慎態度,因爲HIBOR反彈可能加劇銀行在香港商業地產敞口的不良貸款風險,進一步增加撥備壓力。該行最近將恆生評級從「中性」下調至「沽售」,原因是信貸成本上升以及2025年可能削減股息。該行認爲中銀香港短期內也面臨下行風險,因其年內股價已上升52%,投資者可能獲利了結,且即將公佈的上半年業績可能上調信貸成本指引。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account