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《大行》民生證券:Hibor上漲不影響股市大局 供給端收縮、需求端增、此前做空港元套息交易反轉令港元利率升
阿思達克 08-18 14:48
今早(18日)一個月港元拆息升至2.01厘,創1個月新高,民生證券發表報告表示,近期的主角無疑是股市,除了亮眼的A股外,恆生指數也創下2021年底以來的新高。但是在隱祕的角落中,香港地區重要基準利率HIBOR也在悄然上漲,該行認為Hibor的上漲目前不會影響股市大局,只是在風格上警惕投機風格較重的「小票」(小型股份)。 該行指,HIBOR是中國香港重要的基準市場利率,既是香港貨幣金融基石的聯系匯率制度的重要環節,也是銀行間市場水溫的重要「溫度計」,還是包括按揭房貸在內眾多金融產品的定價基準。因此,它的影響因素其實很多,因此並不能簡單建立「Hibor利率上漲→港股承壓」的邏輯。 民生證券指,利率水平取決於流動性的供需。流動性的需求,除了本土實體經濟的需求(比如房貸)外,資本市場的需求是香港的特色。比如跨境資金流入港股,如果不做外匯對沖,就屬於對港元的需求,尤其是在銀行間市場結餘偏低的情況下,對於利率的影響會更加明顯。除此之外,大規模的IPO以及集中分紅都是擾動港元需求的重要因素。結合上述供需影響機制,近期HIBOR利率的上漲是港元自我調節機制和資本市場活動的自然結果,無需多慮。 該行指流動性大增、利率下降、套息交易重燃推動港元貶值。金融局在5月初4次出手、累計投放1,166億港元資金,將銀行間市場總結餘推升至1,700億港元以上,一般超過1,000億港元就能成為寬鬆,直接將隔夜和周度的Hibor利率從4%以上(5月2日),壓降至0%附近(5月9日及之後)。於是就人為造就了「超過300個基點」的美港利差+不會繼續升值的港幣(相對美元)」。 這一無風險的套利機會:借入低息港幣資金,兌換成美元,再投資高息的美元資產,帶來港元重回貶值。令人意外的是港元僅在一個多月內完成強弱轉換。供給層面,金管局進行了上述提到的大量淨投放;需求層面,非本土企業5、6月大規模IPO後資金流出+南向資金流入明顯放緩甚至出現階段性淨流出,疊加套息交易對港元的天然做空,該行看到港元利率和匯率雙雙大幅下降。6月26日金管局因港元偏弱、觸及弱方兌換保證,開始進行「賣美元、回收港幣」的逆向操作:流動性首先開始逆轉。銀行間市場流動性結餘此後開始加速下降,對應著HIBOR也迎來向上拐點。 在這樣的背景下,近期港元利率的上漲主要有三個方面的因素。一是供給端的持續收縮,截至8月15日,香港銀行間市場總結餘已經從6月高點的超過1,700億港元,縮水至537億港元(此前的均衡地點水平大致在500億港元左右);二是需求端,7月底以來南向資金的流入有所加速,大背景是美元重新走弱、以及交易部分港股的業績(比如騰訊等);第三則是交易層面,此前做空港元的套息交易加速反轉,需要大量港元來平倉。
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