《市評》恆指跌1%成交3,126億 沽空率升至逾22% 北水淨流入359億創新高
市場憂美國未來減息步伐放慢,港股今日向下。美國7月生產者物價指數(PPI)按年升3.7%超過預期,創三年來最大升幅,交易員降低對聯儲局減息預期,美股道指及納指隔晚各微跌0.02%及0.01%,撰文之時,美國2年期債券孳息跌至3.723%,美國10年期債券孳息跌至4.285%,美匯指數跌至97.94,道指期貨最新升306點或0.7%,納指期貨最新跌38點或0.2%。內地公布7月規模以上工業增加值按年升5.7%(市場預測升6%)、7月社會消費品零售總額按年升3.7%(市場預測升4.6%)、內地首七個月城鎮固定資產投資按年升1.6%(市場預測升2.7%),上證綜指全日升30點或0.8%收3,696點,深證成指升1.6%,滬深兩市成交額共2.24萬億元人民幣。
恆指低開197點後跌幅擴大,曾跌351點一度低見25,167點,全日跌249點或1%,收25,270點;國指跌89點或1%,收9,039點;恆生科技指數跌32點或0.6%,收5,543點。大市全日成交金額按日升逾15%至3,126.87億元,錄自7月31日(當日成交額3,206億元)以來最高水平。北水交易總成交額1,796.22億元,而南向資金今日淨流入358.76億元(上日淨流入10.34元)創新高。盈富基金(02800.HK)跌0.8%,成交額增至295.9億元。銀諾醫藥-B(02591.HK)首日掛牌,全日收57.25元,較上市價18.68元高206.5%,不計手續費,每手200股賬面賺7,714元。
恆指本周累升411點或1.7%,國指本周累升143點或1.6%、恆生科指本周累升82點或1.5%。中美聯合聲明再暫停實施相互24%關稅90日,市場關注美聯儲局未來減息步伐、美俄峰會面談俄烏戰事的結果等。
【南向資金湧港 京東績後受壓】
京東(09618.HK)次季新業務虧損超預期,全日股價跌3.4%。券商引述京東管理層指第三季新業務投資與第二季相若;於餐飲外賣競爭的阿里(09988.HK)及美團(03690.HK)跌3%及2.2%。
摩根大通表示,京東第二季收入優預期、淨利潤符合預期,調整後淨利潤按年下降49%至74億人民幣,但較摩通預期和市場預期分別高出33%和34%,主要得益於非經營項目的影響。調整後經營利潤按年下降92%至8.96億人民幣,較摩通預期低73%,主要由於新業務經營虧損148億人民幣,高於摩通預期110億人民幣,對比今年首季虧損13億人民幣。
摩根士丹利表示,京東第二季度業績在經營利潤方面未達預期,主要由於新業務虧損高於預期。管理層預計第三季度的新業務投資規模將與第二季度相近。再加上自9月份開始較高的收入基數,該行預計京東在2025年下半年及之後將面臨巨大的利潤率壓力。京東管理層指引京東零售第三季收入按年增長約10%,集團總收入按年增長低雙位,意味著京東零售經營利潤率保持穩定。該行預計從9月起,京東在電子產品與家電銷售方面將面臨嚴峻的按年比較的壓力。
【沽空率攀升 券商股起舞】
港股今日市寬向好,主板股票的升跌比率為26比24(上日為23比25),上升股份1,086隻(升幅3.9%),恆指成份股今日25隻股份上升,下跌股60隻,升跌比率為29比71(上日41比56)。大市今日錄沽空652.19億元,佔可沽空股份成交額2,863.69億元的22.774%(上日為14.131%),其中盈富基金沽空金額達159.03億元,佔大市沽空比率逾24%。
中資券商股造高,中信建投(06066.HK)全日股價彈高近11%,中金(03908.HK)彈8.5%、中信証券(06030.HK)及中國銀河(06881.HK)各升7.3%及9.5%,華泰(06886.HK)升5.3%。
山西證券昨發表報告指,內地兩融餘額攀升及券商各業務持續回暖。截至8月8日,內地兩融餘額達2.01萬億人民幣,為2015年以來再次突破兩萬億,週日均成交額達1.7萬億人民幣,證券公司財富管理及自營投資業務隨市場風險偏好提升實現增長。同時,投行及資管業務有所回暖,投行業務7月IPO募集規模242億人民幣,按年增長164%,資管業務止跌回升,第二季度券商及其資管子公司管理規模達5.52萬億人民幣,較首季度末5.31萬億人民幣按年增長3.82%。從上市券商業績預告披露情況來看,多數實現業績的大幅增長,同時一級與二級市場的持續回暖為券商未來業績的增長提供支撐。
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