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《大行》大摩降中鐵(00390.HK)評級至「與大市同步」 目標價下調至4.6元
阿思達克 08-12 11:24
摩根士丹利發表報告指出,預計內地主要工程與建設企業2025年第二季度業績表現疲弱,且此趨勢可能持續至下半年。市場已認可企業轉向現金流紀律的策略轉變,但執行效果因地方政府財政壓力而低於預期。 大摩表示,第二季度顯示行業持續的逆風。中國八大工程建設國企的新訂單在第一季度按年下降4%後,第二季度錄得1%的按年增長。根據該行的渠道檢查,第二季度現場項目執行依然疲軟,水泥出貨量及挖掘機利用率數據下降支持這一觀點。該行預計領先的工程建設企業因建築活動疲弱而錄得較差的第二季度業績。與此同時,儘管上半年地方政府專項債券發行加速且地方政府債務置換,基礎設施建設資金按年未見明顯復甦。 考慮到建築活動低於預期,大摩將中鐵(00390.HK)及中國建築(601668.SH)2025至2026年淨利潤預測下調18%至30%。該行將中鐵H股評級從「增持」降至「與大市同步」,目標價由5.6港元下調至4.6港元;中鐵A股(601390.SH)維持「與大市同步」評級,目標價由7元人民幣下調至5.8元人民幣。中國建築評級從「增持」降至「減持」,目標價由6.5元人民幣下調至4.7元人民幣。 相較於中國建築,大摩仍較看好中鐵H股,因其在基礎設施領域的敞口較高,若刺激政策出台,預計將更顯著受益。
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