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《大行》花旗:康師傅(00322.HK)持續市場份額流失堪憂 評級「沽售」目標價10.1元
花旗發表研報指出,康師傅(00322.HK)上半年集團銷售按年降3%,遠遜於統一(00220.HK)按年增11%,並顯著落後於管理層25年全年指引。花旗指出,康師傅持續疲弱的收入表現與連續市場份額流失一直是該行的結構性擔憂。 在花旗看來,消費品公司的收入表現更能反映長期增長實力,因為原材料成本波動總是周期性的。康師傅2025年上半年核心淨利潤增長12%,主要得益於原材料成本周期性順風的利潤率優勢。康師傅2025年上半年核心息稅前利潤(EBIT)按年增13%,顯著低於統一企業按年增長37%,康師傅在飲料及麵食業務的銷售表現均大幅落後統一。花旗在中國食品飲料領域的偏好順序不變,農夫山泉(09633.HK)、統一並列首選、 最後為康師傅。 在消費品領域,花旗繼續偏好可持續增長模式,即穩健的收入增長與正向經營槓桿下的利潤率擴張,而非通過激進的平均售價上調(如康師傅在2024年所進行)實現的疲弱收入增長與毛利率擴張。 花旗對康師傅的目標價為10.1元,評級「沽售」,基於2025年預測市盈率13倍,較其十年歷史平均值折讓50%,以反映其在後疫情時代麵食及即飲茶業務收入的不確定性增加。 花旗對上述公司投資評級及目標價表列如下: 股份|評級|目標價(港元) 農夫山泉(09633.HK)|買入|53.3元 統一企業中國(00220.HK)|買入|11.9元 康師傅(00322.HK)|沽售|10.1元
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