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植耀輝:極端天氣影響經濟 恆指維持窄幅爭持
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,近年極端天氣出現頻率變得相當高,香港本週便經歷了多場暴雨,其他地區例如北海道近日最高溫度便達到40度!歐洲多地亦受高溫天氣侵擾,對民生經濟帶來之衝擊亦更嚴峻,農業及畜牧業產出便受到不同程度損失;另外,由於當地河水溫度上升,影響部分核電廠河水進行冷卻之能力,部分核電廠更因此須要暫停運作。根據安聯研究與世界經濟論壇所發表之最新研究報告,今年熱浪將導致歐洲國家GDP平均下降0.5個百分點。而聯合國氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)早於2019年發布之《氣候變遷與土地報告》便預測,到2050年,氣候變遷將導致全球糧食產能下降5%至30%。不過以近年氣溫上升之速度,恐怕相關影響將提前出現。 不過在此等情況下亦催生了「新高溫經濟」,例如製冷設備及個人便攜式風扇便迎來商機,對防曬產品產生之需求亦倍增。但可以的話,筆者寧願極端天氣不再出現矣! 回說港股方面,本週出現一輪反彈,恆指昨日亦突破25,000點水平兼「四連升」。不過正如早前所述,雖然恆指24,000點支持力不弱,但要突破並企穩兩萬五之上亦非易事,須有較實質因素作配合。加上包括騰訊(00700.HK)在內之大型科企將陸續公布季績,表現對後市亦會有較大啟示。預期恆指短期將於25,000點附近水平爭持。 股份方面,繼續談談業績股,太古(00019.HK)昨日公布截至6月底止之中期業績,基本溢利微跌2%至54.76億元,各項主要業務表現均仍算穩健,中期息則微增4%至1.3元,屬筆者預期之內。其股價績後曾跌超過2%,或與集團未有公布新一輪回購計劃有關。由於集團可動用流動資金超過500億元,相信回購仍將陸續有來,筆者暫亦繼續持有,畢竟其股價與資產淨值仍存在相當大折讓。至於中移動(00941.HK)業績亦一如預期般穩健,股東應佔溢利增加5%至842億元人民幣,派息亦增加5.8%至2.75港元。作為本地其中一隻最「穩陣」收息股,中移動預期約6厘息率仍有一定吸引力,已持貨之投資者可繼續安心作中長線持有。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,持有太古A股份)~
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