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《大行》摩通升友邦(01299.HK)目標價至105元 維持「增持」評級
阿思達克 08-06 11:44
摩根大通研究報告指出,友邦保險(01299.HK)今年迄今表現優於大盤,股價自2024年4月低點46港元上漲27%(恆生指數:23%),似乎已反映多項正面因素。因此,市場可能聚焦於2025年上半年財報(8月22日)的新催化劑,例如現金加速增長速度、本港業務在多項監管變革後的展望、2026年總股東回報(TSR)指引。摩通將目標價時間框架從2025年12月延長至2026年6月,新的目標價為105港元,原本目標價為102港元,維持「增持」評級,因預期2026年盈利指引上調或超預期,並有進一步的總股東回報上行潛力。此外,香港監管發展應對公司更有利。 摩通強調香港對友邦保險新業務價值(NBV)的貢獻約為30%,又指近期香港引入三項監管收緊措施,包括分紅(par)保單的展示上限降低(GL16/28)、前期銷售佣金減少(GL16)、與香港風險資本準則(HKRBC)框架相關的分紅業務管理(GL34)。摩通初步認為,離岸銷售活動可能放緩,特別是經紀渠道。因此,競爭減少將帶來機會,包括降低收購成本及改善流失率體驗展望。 摩通表示,截至2024年12月,友邦保險現有壽險保單,在未來10年未折現可分配收益增至466億美元(年增8.6%)。摩通預測此餘額將增至487億美元(按半年增4.5%),為更高的盈利增長前景提供信心。預計淨自由盈餘生成將達24億美元(年增9%),截至2025年6月預估自由盈餘餘額為108億美元。 摩通預計,友邦保險2025、2026、2027財年新業務價值年增率分別為15%、22%、24%。
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