《大行》匯豐研究:中電(00002.HK)更聚焦價值提升 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究表示,中電(00002.HK)2025年上半年盈利低於該行預期,按年下降5%至56億港元,主要受澳洲零售(客戶)業務在激烈競爭下表現疲弱,以及中國內地收入減少拖累。然而,該行認為市場已對此有所預期,因澳洲電力零售定價持續低迷。中期每股股息維持0.63港元,按年持平。該行預測全年股息將實現增長,具體情況需待2026年2月底公布全年業績時確認。
匯豐環球研究預計,中電澳洲業務在2025年下半年盈利將改善,主要受惠於零售電價上調,以及發電資產營運效率提升。隨著澳洲業務復甦帶動自由現金流改善,下半年股息增長前景樂觀。儘管中國內地因電價政策調整存在盈利不確定性,該行預計中電將基於區域需求、可再生能源資源及較低限電風險等條件,嚴格篩選項目投資,對於未達到投資門檻(標準保持不變)的項目將不予推進。
匯豐環球研究表示,儘管澳洲等海外市場面臨短期挑戰,中電憑藉香港電力業務的穩健基礎及持續漸進的股息政策,仍是該行在香港公用事業板塊中的首選。若澳洲業務達成更多項目或企業層面合作,將釋放資本配置至風險回報更佳的領域。在8月4日的分析師會議上,管理層表示中國內地業務將轉向更具選擇性的投資策略,該行認為此舉有利於在風險回報基礎上把握機會並提升公司整體價值。基於盈利預測下調(部分被目標估值倍數上調抵消),該行將目標價由80港元微調至78港元。
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