《大行》華泰證券:心動公司(02400.HK)料業績高增 升目標價81.69元 維持「買入」評級
華泰證券發表研報指出,心動公司(02400.HK)發布業績盈喜,預期2025年上半年取得收入不少於30.5億元人民幣(下同),按年增約37%;淨利潤不少於7.9億元,按年增加約215%。該行預計業績高增主因:遊戲方面,《仙境傳說 M:初心服》、《火炬之光:無限》、《心動小鎮》流水較好,且遊戲業務整體毛利率按年提升;廣告算法改進及用戶參與度提升帶動,TapTap平台收入與利潤均持續增長;公司費用率優化。
華泰證券看好公司自研遊戲進入兌現周期,多元市場拓展潛力被驗證,TapTap平台商業化能力增強,長期增長空間有望打開,維持「買入」評級。
華泰證券認為,公司後續重點產品儲備包括《RO2》。此外,其間接全資附屬公司與MiAO訂立購股協議,以1,400萬美元對價認購708.64萬股B1系列優先股,約佔MiAO交割後已發行股本5.3%。該行認為,此次收購有望協同MiAO的發展潛力和創新能力。
該行又指出,TapTap商業化提速,廣告算法改進賦能平台。截至2024年平台月活躍用戶(MAU)為4,400萬,預計2025年平台MAU保持平穩,但用戶黏性有望提升。華泰證券認為,隨著廣告算法推薦效率提升,廣告主預算有望向平台傾斜,且因經營槓桿效應,公司利潤率有望持續增長。
華泰證券考慮到公司遊戲產品流水表現優異,自研能力提升未來遊戲成功機率增加,且利潤率有望持續提升,上調公司2025至2027年歸母淨利潤至16.8億、19.5億、21.3億元(前值為10.2億、12.1億、13.5億元,調整幅度分別為64.8%、61%、58%)。基於分部估值,予TapTap平台業務2025年市銷率9倍(前值5.5倍),予遊戲業務2025年市盈率24倍(前值17.4倍),公司目標價81.69港元(前值42.89港元)。
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