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《大行》瑞銀料港鐵(00066.HK)未來五年資金缺口或達1,170億元 維持「沽售」評級
阿思達克 08-07 10:37
瑞銀發表報告,維持港鐵(00066.HK)「沽售」評級,以反映風險/回報缺乏吸引力。同時調低2025至2027年每股盈利預測2至12%,以反映較高的利息支出。目標價則由21.6元升至24元,相當於每股資產淨值折讓30%。 瑞銀指,由於新鐵路項目的資本開支不斷增加,加上利息支出上升,估計港鐵在2025至2029年期間可能面對1,170億港元的資金缺口。若土地市場持續低迷,地鐵的淨資產負債比率(將永久資本證券視為債務)到2029年可能接近100%,令人關注長期股息的可持續性。 該行指,港鐵股息率為4.7%,而龍頭開發商的平均股息率為5.4%,風險回報並不吸引,因為每股派息上升空間有限,且獨立信貸狀況較弱,令股息率受壓。另外,2009至2018年上升周期的歷史表現顯示,港鐵在住宅物業復甦初期的表現遜於龍頭發展商。 瑞銀料港鐵2025年派息後的自由現金流為負129.8億元(2024年為負100.82億元)、2026至2029年派息後的自由現金流預測為負85.17億、263.69億、344.7億及350.78億元。該行料港鐵今明兩年每股派息均為1.31元。
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