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《內房》瑞銀:中國房地產市場低迷時間將超過預期
瑞銀投資銀行亞太及大中華區房地產研究主管林鎮鴻表示,由於內地樓市第二季銷售再次放緩,如果情況持續下去,復甦將較預期來得更遲。除非中國推出額外的刺激措施,否則一線城市樓價將趨於穩定的情況會由明年初推遲至明年中後期纔會出現。 他稱,需求減弱拖長房屋銷售時間,3月一線城市庫存週轉率已降至平均14個月,但到6月底已升至20.7個月,這意味預計會率先反彈的大城市,在消耗房屋存量上需要更長的時間。不過,他強調,自3月底以來中國房屋庫存總量已持續下降。目前只是下降的時間需要更長。 他續指,認爲房地產投資信託基金(REIT)是市場的亮點,建議股票投資者在開發商將購物中心分拆予中國REIT時尋找潛在的上升空間,預計未來三至五年,中國房地產融資可能會出現重大結構性變化,REIT行業的擴張將可彌補房地產開發商股票市值縮水。
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