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《大行》交銀國際降信義能源(03868.HK)至「中性」目標價升至1.28元
阿思達克 08-05 09:17
交銀國際發表報告指,信義能源(03868.HK) 電價下降超預期,短期限電風險加大,公司股價近期大漲後已接近目標價,認為在不確定性較多的情況下估值吸引力有限,下調至「中性」評級。同時將2025-2027年盈利預測下調6%、7%及9%,由於市場整體估值提升,將估值基準由9.5倍市盈率提高至10倍,並由2025年切換至2026年, 目標價由1.17元上調至1.28元。 報告指,公司上半年收入/盈利按年增7.7%/23.4%。售電量增長22.7% ,由於光照較強,利用小時增長超3%,限電率則提高約10個百分點至14%-15%。由於新收購項目電價較低和市場交易電價下降,含稅平均電價下降12%至0.55元/千瓦時,低於該行預期。該行預計由於電價全面市場化將壓縮新建項目收益率,公司未來收購速度將明顯放緩。 報告指,上半年全國光伏發電利用率按年下降3個百分點至94%,但由於136號文和分布式光伏新政導致的搶裝,內地光伏新增裝機高達212吉瓦,按年大增107%。儘管搶裝結束後裝機將放緩, 但預計併網容量激增仍將導致短期內光伏限電風險加大。
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