中銀香港:美聯儲減息取態審慎 若美經濟持續放緩 第四季減息仍為大方向
美聯儲局一如預期維持聯邦基金利率區間在4.25至4.5%不變。中銀香港(02388.HK)財富策略及分析處主管張詩琪認為,是次議息會議對未來貨幣政策持審慎態度,未有提供減息路徑,市場焦點將轉向8月及9月的就業及經濟數據。
中銀香港指出,會後聲明為市場帶來三個重點:第一,基於貿易發展,美聯儲對未來通脹仍保持高度關注;第二,美國第二季的國內生產總值年化季比上升3%,較第一季的收縮有所改善,但上半年整體經濟增速出現放慢跡象;第三,美聯儲認為美國就業市場依然穩健。
張詩琪認為,實現充分就業和穩定通脹為美聯儲的政策目標,然而在現時就業穩健及通脹略升的趨勢下,增加政策決議難度。因此,未來兩個月的數據將成為利率走勢的關鍵依據。
中銀香港又指出,利率期貨數據反映市場對於減息預期降溫。本周初,市場幾乎肯定美聯儲將於10月減息,但會後10月的減息預期降至76%,年內減息次數亦下跌至不足兩次。 張詩琪指出,會後聲明反映美聯儲對美國經濟增速未有早前樂觀,若未來通脹屬於短暫上升或經濟增速繼續放緩,美聯儲可能採取較積極的減息措施,預期第四季減息仍然是大方向。
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