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《大行》花旗料上半年內銀盈利按年持平 較首季跌幅改善
花旗發表報告,預計覆蓋的內銀股在2025年上半年收入下降幅度將有所減少,預計按年下降0.1%。原因包括上半年淨息差壓縮幅度較小;交易收益壓力減輕,因10年期中國國債收益率在2025年第二季度末降至1.65%。 與此相符,盈利壓力可能會依次減輕,2025年上半年預計盈利按年持平,相較於首季盈利按年下降1.3%有所改善。該行認爲,2025年第二季超預期的宏觀經濟條件可能會激勵銀行維持逆週期撥備做法,以保留更大的盈利緩衝,併爲2025年下半年預計的更多撥備釋放留出空間。 在大型國有銀行中,該行認爲農行(01288.HK)及交行(03328.HK)可能在2025年第二季度繼續實現快於同行的盈利增長;工商銀行(01398.HK)、浦發銀行(600000.SH)、北京銀行(601169.SS)可能報告超出預期的2025年第二季度業績,並估計招商銀行(03968.HK)可能低於預期。常熟銀行(601128.SH)可能宣佈高於預期的20%-25%的派息比率。
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