《大行》交銀國際升三生製藥(01530.HK)目標價至33元 維持「買入」評級
交銀國際發表報告,上調三生製藥(01530.HK)盈利預測及目標價。公司和輝瑞就PD-1/VEGF雙抗達成
的授權協議於近期正式生效,後者同步引進產品中國內地權益、並計劃於近期啟動全球III期臨床開發,再次彰顯該產品在多個大瘤種上的巨大潛在價值,以及與輝瑞豐富腫瘤管線的聯用機會。該行維持「買入」評級,後續催化劑包括707 更多數據讀出和潛在BD授權交易,及IL-17A、長效促紅素SSS06、特比澳CLDT適應症的獲批上市等。
報告指,輝瑞擁有極強大的創新藥管線和全球商業化能力,未來 SSGJ-707 有機會與輝瑞多款 ADC、小分子靶向藥產生聯用。該行認為,輝瑞獲得產品中國內地權益後,憑借豐富的腫瘤創新藥推廣經驗,有望進一步強化產品在泛 PD-(L)1市場競爭地位。因此上調其經PoS調整全球銷售高峰至66億元人民幣。
基於更高的合作收入預測,該行上調三生製藥2025-2027年收入預測2-6%;同時考慮到高定價的創新藥和高利潤率的合作收入對總收入的貢獻逐步提高,上調利潤率預測,最終淨利潤預測上調6-9%。目標價升至33元,對應25.8倍、23.9倍2025年/2026年市盈率。雖然該目標估值倍數高於歷史均值,但公司正從傳統大單品主導業績轉向新品疊代+出海驅動長期增長,處於關鍵節點,未來估值中樞有較大上調空間,維持「買入」評級。
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