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大摩料標普500指數明年中見7,200點 受惠盈利復甦及有利宏觀環境
阿思達克 07-29 10:21
外媒報道,摩根士丹利股票策略師Michael Wilson認為,受盈利滾動復甦及有利宏觀趨勢推動,標普500指數明年中或升至7,200點,基於319美元的遠期每股盈利預測及市盈率22.5倍。他指企業盈利增長基礎穩固,該行非PMI盈利模型顯示每股盈利增長率將達到中雙位數。 他把當前周期描述為「非同尋常的周期」,並指4月市場的崩潰標誌著2022年以來滾動盈利衰退完結。他認為當前環境受多個利好因素支持,包括正向經營槓桿、人工智慧應用、美元走弱、《大而美法案》帶來的稅收節省、低基數效應、被壓抑需求及美聯儲高概率明年首季減息。他又指,盈利修訂廣度的歷史性急劇拐點證實該進程正在進行,實現樂觀預測的概率正在上升。 在行業選擇上,他重申對工業部門的偏好,稱其為該行首選行業。
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