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《大行》瑞銀:內銀H股股息回報5厘以上具吸引力 全線上調目標價 升交行評級至「買入」
瑞銀發表報告,自2020年以來,高股息收益率和基本面透明度的提升推動了內銀股的行情,該行認為現在的關鍵議題是股息的可持續性,這取決於內銀的盈利前景和資金流動。該行結合了五年預測、傳統驅動因素和其獨特的分析方法,重點分析兩個「關鍵變數」:債券投資和信貸成本。該行基本情景預測是,中資銀行將能夠保持穩定的利潤增長,並從2026年起恢復收入增長,同時維持平穩的撥備路徑,並對中資銀行股息的可持續性以及進一步上漲持較樂觀態度。 該行認為,內銀H股股息回報達5厘以上具吸引力,並全線上調目標價,並將交通銀行(03328.HK)H股的投資評級由「中性」升至「買入」,目標價由5.95元升至8.6元,並重申對工商銀行H股(01398.HK)、建設銀行H股(00939.HK)、中國銀行H股(03988.HK)和中信銀行H股(00998.HK)的「買入」評級,該行升工行目標價由5.98元升至7.79元,升建行目標價由7.4元升至10.2元。該行下調招行(03968.HK)H股評級由「買入」降至「中性」,基於估值較高及股息回報低於同業,但仍將對其目標價由52元升至56元。。 瑞銀指,內銀(截至今年7月28日,MSCI中國銀行指數上漲79%)自2020年新冠疫情開始以來,顯著跑贏港股及A股市場,主要受惠於中國內地低利率環境下吸引的股息收益率,以及淨利息收益率(NIM)、貸款增長和資產質量的基本面透明度提升。南向資金流入(特別是來自中國保險公司的資金)增加,導致H股銀行持股比例從2023年的19%翻倍至2025年的41%。雖然內銀股上漲使股息收益率從2023年的9%降至目前的5%,但該行認為銀行股仍有上漲空間。 該行認為,收入透明度將從2025年起改善,淨利息收益率收縮將於2026年觸底,手續費收入將穩定。雖然資產收益率仍受壓,但積極的存款利率下調、穩健的貸款增長和債券增長將支撐淨利息收入。非利息收入(特別是投資和交易活動)已成為更重要的收入來源,預計到2029年可貢獻高達5%的收入增長。
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