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《大行》中銀證券:政策催化中概股回歸潮 港股或成首選港灣 中資券商迎跨境紅利
中銀證券發表題為「中概股回歸的N條潛在路徑」報告表示,隨著中美關係的緊張和美國對中概股的監管日益嚴格,中概股面臨較大的退市壓力。這一局勢促使大量中概股企業考慮回歸中國資本市場。中國政府通過政策支持,如註冊制和CDR制度,建立了多元化的回歸路徑,為中概股的回歸創造了有利的制度環境。不僅為企業提供法律保障,還幫助企業在資本市場重新獲得融資機會,並增強市場流動性。 該行指,中概股在中美關係中的角色早已超越單純的融資工具,逐漸嵌入到兩國戰略博弈格局中,資本市場也因此成為制度競爭的前沿陣地,中概股被高度「工具化」,成為美方博弈中可攻可守的一張籌碼。美方以「審計不透明」、「資訊不對」等名義頻頻將中概股列入預摘牌名單,利用市場情緒對中資企業施壓,以換取在貿易、技術出口等其他談判議題上的讓步空間。中方堅守國家數據主權底線,強調監管邊界不可越,而美方則堅持中概股必須全面接受PCAOB審計。這一制度分歧凸顯出雙方在資本與資訊安全領域的深層制度衝突。審計底稿問題不僅涉及資訊披露的合規性,更被視為中方在核心數據控制權上的紅線,而美方則將其視為 「測試中國是否願意全面融入以美國為主導的金融體系」的試金石。 中銀證券表示, 政策催化中概股回歸潮,港股或成首選港灣 。港股二次上市與雙重主要上市:許多已在美國上市的中概股選擇通過二次上市或雙重主要上市的方式回歸港股市場。港交所(00388.HK)的靈活機制、較低的上市門檻以及「同股不同權」政策,為中概股提供一個便捷且具有吸引力的回歸平台。 私有化退市再上市:一些中概股通過私有化退市再通過港股或A股IPO的路徑實現回歸。這一途徑使企業能夠擺脫美國監管的壓力,且能夠借助香港資本市場獲得更合理的估值,並拓展多元化的融資渠道。同時,企業通過重組和優化戰略,提升其市場競爭力。 就CDR(中國存托憑證)發行,允許企業在不改變其境外治理結構的前提下,通過CDR在A股市場「變相上市」。這一方式適用於科技型企業,能夠提升其在中國市場的融資能力,並增強其國際資源配置能力。CDR制度為中概股提供更靈活的回歸方式,同時也為境內資本市場引入更 多創新型企業。 中銀證券認為,中資券商的跨境紅利。隨著中概股回歸浪潮的推進,中資券商將受益於跨境投行業務的增長,尤其是那些具備強大跨境能力的中資券商。此類券商通過為回歸企業提供資本運作服務,能夠獲取更多市場份額。投資者應關注這些券商在跨境業務上的擴展和盈利能力。 雙重上市與A/H股市場的整合。隨著企業在A股與港股市場的雙重上市,投資者可以通過跨市場投資策略進行資產配置。此類企業的估值通常具有跨市場溢價,提供投資者多樣化的投資選擇。
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