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《大行》高盛升港交所(00388.HK)目標價至500元 上調盈測
阿思達克 07-28 16:17
高盛發表報告指出,儘管市場對港交所(00388.HK)每股盈測持續上調,且主要盈利驅動因素現金股票日均成交額已攀升至歷史新高的2,000億港元以上,港交所股價仍較2021年高峰低出約20%。該行全面檢視港交所各項業務動能,關鍵發現如下: 雖然IPO申請數量已接近2021年高峰水平,但新股上市節奏仍處於周期中段。現貨市場活動指標,包括換手率、中小型股與大型股成交比例及市值變化等,均處於歷史90百分位以上,但以中國上市公司總市值相對GDP衡量的市場定位僅處於歷史均值水平,且近期港股通南向資金買入速度有所放緩。 衍生產品市場表現相對平淡,香港衍生產品日均成交量增長停滯(年內至今按年增長約11%),低於歷史平均10%的增速;倫敦金屬交易所(LME)衍生產品年內至今按年增長3%,較2023至2024年的雙位數增長明顯放緩。 受2024年10月以來成交額回升推動,港交所2024年第四季至2025年第一季每股盈利平均按年增長達42%,預計2025年第二季增長29%,此增速為正常水平的3至4倍,當前市盈率較周期中值溢價10%至20%。該行認為,新股上市速度、南向資金流向、中國企業盈利修正及香港衍生產品創新將是影響集團整體業務環境的關鍵因素。 基於最新日均成交額表現優於預期,該行將港交所2025、2026及2027年每股盈利預測上調約4%,並將目標價上調11%,由原先450港元升至500港元,對應港交所2026年預測市盈率40倍。在樂觀與悲觀情境分析下,該股風險回報比呈現溫和正面。該行維持「買入」評級,潛在催化劑包括:A+H股上市;美國存託憑證(ADR)交易份額提升;實際利率下降刺激股票成交;「零日期權」產品推出;以及現貨市場買賣價差收窄提升換手率。
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