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《大行》國金證券料內地今年育兒補貼發放規模1,200億人幣 形成855億人幣消費支出
國金證券發報告表示,國家育兒補貼制度實施方案昨日(28日)公布,明確從今年1月1日起,對符合法律法規規定生育的3周歲以下嬰幼兒發放補貼,至其年滿3周歲。育兒補貼按年發放,現階段國家基礎標準為每孩每年3,600元人民幣。其中,對2025年1月1日之前出生、不滿3周歲的嬰幼兒,按應補貼月數折算計發補貼。 該行預計內地2025年育兒補貼的發放規模為1,200億人民幣。參考「以舊換新」和養老服務消費補貼的中央與地方出資比例,預計育兒補貼的中央與地方整體按照9:1共擔,東部、中部、西部地區中央承擔比例分別為85%、90%、95%。此次的育兒補貼方案實現了全國範圍的全覆蓋,既體現了政策的普惠性和公平性,也有助於針對一孩出生率偏低導致的少子化問題「對症下藥」。育兒補貼政策具有不可逆性,體現出政策「投資於人」的決心。從政策表態看,未來補貼規模存在遞增的可能性。 國金證券預計此次育兒補貼的資金來源是一般公共預算。考慮到育兒補貼大概率並未納入今年的財政預算預計8月召開的人大常委會將審議相關的預算調整方案。育兒補貼本質上是增加居民部門的轉移性收入,提高其消費能力和消費意願。 該行估計內地今年發放1,200億元人民幣左右的育兒補貼將形成855億元人民幣的消費支出,拉動社零增速0.18個百分點。育兒補貼作為轉移支付,對可選消費的支撐大於必選消費。 對於市場而言,相較於育兒補貼規模的多少,更重要的是政策對於擴大內需和「投資於人」的積極態度,此次育兒補貼的落地有望成為市場風格切換的催化劑。(wl/u) ~
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