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《大行》摩通對老鋪黃金(06181.HK)增長可視性保持信心 重申「增持」目標價1,249元
摩根大通研究報告指出,老鋪黃金(06181.HK)於前日(27日)發佈盈喜,其2025年上半年收入增長241%至255%至120億至125億元人民幣(下同),盈利增長279%至288%至22.3億至22.8億元(符合市場預期介乎21億至23億元),認爲強勁增長歸因於:品牌價值提升及客戶基礎擴大;持續優化、推廣、迭代及創新產品。更令人鼓舞的是,2025年上半年穩健的精品店擴張(包括5家新精品店及1家精品店翻新)尚未在上半年業績中體現,將於下半年呈現貢獻。 該行認爲,新開精品店在開業促銷期間表現強勁,擁有理想的客戶羣、強勁的客流量及銷售額。因此,摩通預期這種勢頭將於2025年下半年延續,受老鋪品牌價值、產品創新及市場對「國牌」的強烈價值主張推動。摩通又對老鋪在整體消費不確定性中的增長可視性保持信心,基於現金流折現法(DCF),將老鋪2025年12月目標價定爲1,249港元,分別對應預測今明兩年市盈率41倍及30倍。重申「增持」評級。未來催化劑包括新店開張及潛在納入MSCI中國指數。 摩通預期老鋪的勢頭將於2025年下半年持續,並預期2025年收入增長178%,受強勁同店銷售增長及穩健的門店擴張推動;預期2025年盈利增長211%,又將2025至2027年盈利預估上調2%至10%,因新精品店的強勁表現將在下半年貢獻更多,同時預期老鋪在2025至2027年將實現銷售額、淨利潤年均複合增長率(CAGR)分別爲達69%及77%。
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