《大行》高盛降友邦(01299.HK)目標價至83元 料次季新業務價值按年增長16%
高盛發表報告指出,友邦保險(01299.HK)將於2025年8月21日開市前公佈2025年第二季及上半年業績。該行預估第二季新業務價值(VONB)按實質利率(AER)計按年增長16%,高於第一季的13%;上半年淨自由盈餘生成預計按年增長9%,相較2024年全年的2%有所提升。
高盛預計友邦2025財年不會進行額外股份回購。投資者應關注以下推動新業務價值及自由盈餘增長的關鍵因素:首先,中國內地(剔除經濟假設變動影響)及新設區域的實質增長;其次,香港市場的銷售動能;最後,淨自由盈餘增長的驅動因素,包括營運差異及資本效率改善情況。
該行微調友邦2025至2027年盈利預測(幅度介於0%至-1%),以反映投資市場最新動向、匯率變動及銷售動能,並將估值方法從貼現現金流模型調整爲市盈率估值法。中期股東權益回報率(ROEV)預計爲14.7%,資本成本(COE)爲11.2%,長期增長率假設爲2%。基於1.4倍2026年預測股價對內涵價值,該行將12個月目標價由90港元下調至83港元,隱含18%上行空間(以2025年7月25日收市價計算)。維持「買入」評級。
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