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瑞銀指經濟基本面與股市表現出現分化 料全球股市短期內經歷盤整
阿思達克 07-29 10:28
瑞銀投資銀行高級中國經濟學家張寧撰文,指自4月美國宣布加徵關稅以來,全球經濟、股市和外匯市場已經發生了重要轉變。目前經濟基本面與股市表現存在明顯分化。對基本面,瑞銀估算近期全球增長勢頭對應的年化增速僅1.3%,企業信心在5月中美貿易日內瓦協議之後沒有完全恢復,並且近期美國計劃徵收比4月2日方案更高的關稅。但市場定價幾乎沒有反映對關稅的擔憂,這可能是因為目前難以判斷最終關稅落在哪個區間,散戶逢低買入,AI概念依然具有吸引力,弱美元和美聯儲降息可以在一定程度上抵消盈利下行。 瑞銀全球股票策略團隊認為,全球股市將在短期內經歷盤整,但中期來看全球股市有進一步上行的空間,而出現泡沫的概率也在提升。 美國股市方面,當前美股延續了前些年的韌性,瑞銀美國股票策略團隊認為這一現象的背後是強大的結構性買入力量,如上市公司的股票回購和個人養老金,壓制了短期內價格敏感投資者的賣出力量。與此同時,儘管美國企業的盈利增速可能會放緩,但仍將實現正增長。AI推動的盈利增長與美元的疲軟將是美國企業盈利增長的主要推動力。 新興市場方面,瑞銀新興市場股票策略團隊認為,隨著談判後新的對等關稅稅率的宣布,新興市場股票的下行風險可能開始顯現,因為新興市場的整體收入中超過35%來自於海外。新興市場目前似乎並沒有將該風險計入股價。 瑞銀認為下半年勞動力市場走弱可能促使美聯儲大幅降息,並帶動美債收益率下行,不過瑞銀認為投資者對於短期內的國債供給增加的擔憂過度。如果未來幾個勞動力市場資料比較強勁,美聯儲有可能推遲降息。
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