《大行》大和升農夫山泉(09633.HK)目標價至54元 評級「買入」
大和研究報告指出,預計農夫山泉(09633.HK)今年上半年收入按年增長18%,淨利潤按年增長20%。展望下半年,因娃哈哈爭產事件及新產品「冰茶」的潛在貢獻,大和預計農夫山泉下半年收入及淨利潤按年增長,將較上半年加速。
根據大和分析,儘管市場競爭激烈,但農夫山泉在有效的推廣及品牌實力下,其包裝水及無糖茶飲品實現了強勁增長,預計其包裝水收入於今年下半年,按年增長21%至90億元人民幣(下同)(相較於2023年下半年98億元)。
大和指出,農夫山泉於6月推出的碳酸茶新品「冰茶」(600毫升零售價5元),在零售市場獲得正面反饋。據大和與華東地區經銷商的討論,「冰茶」的消費者反饋甚至優於東鵬飲料(605499.SH)的果味茶(首月銷售約8,000萬元)。大和預計,「冰茶」於2025年預計收入達2億至3億元,2026年預計增至6億至8億元,成爲即飲茶板塊的重要推動力。值得注意的是,甜味即飲茶及碳酸飲料在中國的零售市場規模均超過1,000億元人民幣。
因銷售增長預期提高,大和將農夫山泉2025至2027年每股盈測上調4%至8%;維持對該股「買入」評級,並基於預測合併2025至2026年市盈率35倍計,將12個月目標價從40港元上調至54港元。
大和表示,其2025至2027年每股盈餘預測較市場預測高6%至13%,可能因爲該行對該期間收入增長更爲樂觀。
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