《大行》瑞銀:利率上升加上「反內捲」政策推進 利好內地壽險業
瑞銀發表報告指,根據中國近期在反內捲方面的舉措,H股中國壽險板塊在過去四個交易日上漲9.1%。市場認為,解決產能過剩問題有助於緩解通貨緊縮風險,導致商品期貨價格上漲和利率上升。壽險公司長期來看通常能從較高的利率中受惠。
報告指,中國人壽(02628.HK)在過去四個交易日上漲16%,原因包括一些投資者將中國人壽視為中國利率的替代指標,因為其市值龐大且業務模式專注於壽險。其次,一些投資者預期A股與H股的價格差距將進一步縮窄,而中國人壽H股相較A股的折讓較大。第三,投資者表示其估值具吸引力。
展望上半年業績,該行預計大多數公司的新業務價值對利率的敏感性將較去年同期顯著下降,因為產品結構已轉向分紅保單。
除了利率主題之外,該行強調中國平安(02318.HK)和太保(02601.HK)的投資機會,兩者均擁有明確的股息政策和相對吸引力的股息收益率。對於中國平安,該行看好其原因包括集團營運利潤增長加速,得益於減值風險的緩解;股價表現追落後;第二季度新業務價值按年增長勢頭可能更強。對於太保,看好其原因包括營運利潤增長穩定;第二季度稅後淨營業利潤有望強勁反彈;以及作為國企可能實施股份回購。
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