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《大行》瑞银:利率上升加上「反内卷」政策推进 利好内地寿险业
瑞银发表报告指,根据中国近期在反内卷方面的举措,H股中国寿险板块在过去四个交易日上涨9.1%。市场认为,解决产能过剩问题有助于缓解通货紧缩风险,导致商品期货价格上涨和利率上升。寿险公司长期来看通常能从较高的利率中受惠。 报告指,中国人寿(02628.HK)在过去四个交易日上涨16%,原因包括一些投资者将中国人寿视为中国利率的替代指标,因为其市值庞大且业务模式专注于寿险。其次,一些投资者预期A股与H股的价格差距将进一步缩窄,而中国人寿H股相较A股的折让较大。第三,投资者表示其估值具吸引力。 展望上半年业绩,该行预计大多数公司的新业务价值对利率的敏感性将较去年同期显著下降,因为产品结构已转向分红保单。 除了利率主题之外,该行强调中国平安(02318.HK)和太保(02601.HK)的投资机会,两者均拥有明确的股息政策和相对吸引力的股息收益率。对于中国平安,该行看好其原因包括集团营运利润增长加速,得益于减值风险的缓解;股价表现追落后;第二季度新业务价值按年增长势头可能更强。对于太保,看好其原因包括营运利润增长稳定;第二季度税后净营业利润有望强劲反弹;以及作为国企可能实施股份回购。
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