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《大行》瑞銀:友邦中國、平安(02318.HK)及國壽(02628.HK)在分紅型產品轉型中佔優
瑞銀發表報告指,中國保險行業協會近期將定價利率(PIR)基準下調14個基點至1.99%,較現行傳統產品2.5%的定價利率低51個基點。此調整符合市場預期,主要反映2025年第二季市場利率下行(如國債收益率、存款利率及貸款市場報價利率走低)。多家大型險企已將傳統型、分紅型及萬能型產品的定價利率分別下調至2.0%、1.75%及1.0%。傳統型與分紅型產品的定價利率差距縮窄,顯示監管機構正引導行業向分紅型產品轉型,以降低利差損風險。產品切換預計將於2025年8月底完成。 此次定價利率調整可能標誌著傳統增額終身壽險(IWLP)黃金時代的終結。該產品雖受消費者青睞,但對保險公司存在較高利率風險。相比之下,分紅型產品吸引力提升,香港市場(演示回報率6%至6.5%)與內地市場均將受益。瑞銀估算傳統產品2.0%的定價利率對保單持有人的實際內部回報率(IRR)僅為1.6%至1.9%,長期持有(如10年以上)吸引力有限。分紅型產品的定價利率僅較傳統型低25個基點(此前為50個基點),且可通過浮動收益部分獲取潛在更高回報。 瑞銀預計,隨著險企加速向分紅型產品轉型,2025年上半年新業務價值的利率敏感度將顯著下降。分紅型產品佔比提升亦可能增加權益類資產(如股票)的配置,因其投資賬戶風險容忍度較高。 在分紅型產品轉型中,友邦中國憑藉較強的投資能力(2021-2024年平均綜合投資收益率4.8%,高於同業平均4%)、履約率及代理人能力(2024年月均新業務價值產能1.3萬元人民幣,同業為1,800至5,700元人民幣)佔據優勢。其分紅型產品在代理人渠道的長期儲蓄新業務價值佔比已於2025年第一季超過80%。此外,中國平安(02318.HK)及中國人壽(02628.HK)在分紅型產品轉型中亦表現優於同業。
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