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《大行》花旗微降中石化(00386.HK)目標價至5.2元 續偏好中石油(00857.HK)作首選
花旗發表報告,更新對中石化(00386.HK)的盈利預測及目標價,反映調整後的假設,並將2025年每股盈利預測下調15%,目標價由5.3元下調至5.2元。該行預計中石化2025年第二季淨利潤按季下降逾40%至約80億元人民幣,主要因煉化業務和市場庫存損失,以及勘探與開採表現疲弱。儘管如此,隨著原油價格趨於穩定及核心煉油毛利小幅改善,第三季業績預計將出現反彈。 花旗認為,中國「反內捲」政策難以顯著改善化工品價差,因亞洲行業產能利用率仍處低位且需求增長放緩。中石化持續推動資產升級(淘汰並重建小型裂解裝置),以及優化產品結構(降低煉廠開工率、將柴油轉產航空煤油、提高合成橡膠等高利潤下游產品產量),或可緩解下游毛利進一步下滑的壓力。 雖然在中國油氣股中,花旗仍更偏好中石油(00857.HK)作為首選標的,但中石化約6%的穩健股息收益率及潛在股份回購可提供一定支撐。
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