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《大行》花旗升農夫山泉(09633.HK)目標價至53.3元 料上半年純利增22%
阿思達克 07-28 11:23
花旗發表研究報告,料農夫山泉(09633.HK)上半年淨利潤按年增長22%,高於市場預期8%,其中預期銷售額按年增長20%(亦高於市場預期8%),且得益於其所有主要類別的直銷銷售額增長,花旗預測其瓶裝水、茶、功能飲料、果汁銷售額在2025年上半年分別按年增長16%、25%、16%、15%。 花旗表示,鑑於近期(7月初以來)其主要競爭對手的負面新聞,預期農夫山泉的瓶裝水業務復甦在2025年下半年將加速,且茶及功能飲料的強勁銷售增長將在今年下半年持續。花旗將農夫山泉目標價從38.6港元上調至53.3港元,並啟動30天正面催化劑觀察,維持「買入」評級。 花旗又預期,集團毛利率在2025年上半年按年擴大50個基點,因正向經營槓桿效應(通過強勁的收入增長)及投入成本下降,將足以抵消其「人民幣1元加送一瓶」促銷活動(根據花旗的理解,其成本將計入銷貨成本)的負面影響。 此外,鑑於其對純淨水產品銷售費用的按年削減,花旗預測其2025年上半年銷售費用比率按年下降30個基點。因此,花旗預期其息稅前利潤率按年擴大100個基點,集團息稅前利潤在今年上半年按年增長23%。鑑於淨財務收入按年減少,花旗預測其淨利潤在今年上半年按年增長22%,淨利潤率按年改善50個基點(至28.6%)。 花旗對農夫山泉2025至27年各年淨利潤預測,分別上調6%、6%及7%,銷售額預測則分別上調3%、5%及6%。
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