高盛上調日本今年GDP增長預測至0.9% 明年升至0.7%
高盛研究報告指,日本與美國政府日前宣佈已就關稅談判達成協議,當中乘用車與汽車零部件關稅由25%降至15%,互惠關稅由10%調升至15%,日本承諾對美投資5,500億美元。該行認爲,美國對日本進口的實際關稅稅率可能較當前水平輕微下降至約14%,因汽車關稅下調的正面影響超越互惠關稅上調的負面影響。對日本經濟亦可能有輕微正面影響,因汽車關稅降低的貢獻度高於互惠關稅提高造成的拖累。
因此,該行將2025年日本實質GDP增長預測由0.8%升至0.9%,2026年由0.6%升至0.7%。在假設對美汽車出口量持穩前提下,將2025與2026年的出口預測上調近2個百分點,同時上調同期資本支出預測0.5個百分點,因不確定性降低與企業強勁的資本支出意願。另一方面,企業盈利疲軟與物價持續高企可能壓抑消費,故將2025與2026年民間消費預測下調0.3個百分點。
然而,該行認爲關稅上調措施可能尚未終結,預期美國將針對半導體、製藥等特定產業加徵關稅,且現行汽車零部件的關稅寬免將於兩年後到期。考慮到這些因素,美國對日本進口的實際關稅稅率可能持續攀升,相關政策不確定性將延續。
在風險不確定性仍然高企,以及無迫切加息因素下,該行預期日本央行對加息將維持觀望立場,並料下次加息將會是明年1月,但仍存在高度不確定性。若美國關稅政策或海外經濟發展導致出口商盈利及薪資下行壓力弱於央行預期,或日圓出現貶值,加息或提前發生;反之則可能推遲。
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