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植耀輝:哈電(01133.HK)現價估值仍吸引 續持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,北水又再一次為港股締造歷史。今次主角為東方電氣(01072.HK)。話說其股價週一(21日)一度爆升7倍至119.9元,全日計亦勁升65%。事緣內地正式啟動西藏雅魯藏布江下游水電工程,總投資額達到1.2萬億元人民幣,規模之大遠超當年之三峽工程(據國家審計署公告數據,三峽工程總投資額為2,072億元人民幣)。根據內地業內人士預估,今次工程預計裝機規模約6,000萬千瓦,年發電量將達到3,000億千瓦時,約是三峽大壩之3倍,難怪一眾相關股被炒起。不過升勢上則遠不及東方電氣。究其原因依然是北水。該股當日成交達到破紀錄之101億元,在北水瘋狂炒作下,其港股通成交金額較「ATMXJ」還要多。 當然,作為內地水力發電設備兩大龍頭,東方電氣及哈電(01133.HK)均能受惠相關工程,但不能否認的是本週累積升幅亦相當驚人,何況有關項目短期內難對收入帶來實質貢獻,所以持有東方電氣的話可考慮先減一減磅。而筆者則暫未有減持哈電之打算,皆因其最新公布上半年盈利按年大升近倍至10.2億元人民幣,雖不及去年下半年之盈利水平(約12億元),但表現亦已相當不俗。由於現價估值依然遠低於東氣,加上長遠可受惠內地「抽水蓄能」以及相關項目,筆者對其前景仍有信心,故雖然股價過去兩個交易日出現調整(由高位計最多回調約11%),但仍傾向繼續持有。 至於港股及A股本週表現同樣出色,上綜指及深成指突破3,600點及11,100點水平,港股則更強勢,恆指在科技股特別是騰訊(00700.HK)抽升下突破25,000點關口,昨日亦延續升勢,最高升至25,735點,「五連升」兼創近3年多新高。不經不覺恆指年初至今累升已達到28%,科指升幅亦逾28.5%。其實近期港股升勢頗令筆者意外,但亦證明只要A股能持續造好,以及中美貿易談判繼續釋出正面訊號,則港股仍有望繼續突破。值得一提的是匯控(00005.HK)股價已重上「紅底股」之列,現價息率亦已回落至5厘附近,由於吸引力一般,可待下週公布中期業績後始再作部署。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,持有哈爾濱電氣股份)~
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