港股科技板塊引動第三輪中國資產重估 中金力推聯想、中芯國際等
近日，2Q25公募基金持倉數據進入密集披露時間，數據顯示，電子板塊持倉穩中有升，通信板塊持倉環比提升較多。
具體而言，1)半導體倉位環比略降，但算力高景氣推升PCB持倉；2)消費電子板塊中，關稅不確定性致果鏈持倉下降；3)通信/安防持倉環比提升，光通信產業鏈再受海外算力利好。
年初 DeepSeek 行情驅動了年內第一輪中國資產重估行情，被 4 月關稅擾動打斷後，5 月以來的資產重估由金融、消費和醫藥等板塊主導，並推動恆生指數回到 24000 點。在經歷了較快上漲後，三季度負面壓力"如期而至"，但近期邊際變化顯示壓力程度比市場預期更加溫和。在景氣修復和估值性價比的交集中，港股科技板塊是佔整個港股市場接近 1/3 的大容量板塊，市場多數觀點認爲，關注科技重估驅動的第三輪中國資產重估行情。
邏輯在於，近期壓制科技類企業盈利前景的負面因素有所改善。1)"外賣大戰"對頭部互聯網企業的利潤壓力或提前緩解。18 日市場監管總局對主要外賣平臺公司進行約談，要求外賣平臺企業理性競爭。此前市場預期該競爭或持續至25 年底至 26 年。2)AI 行情出現新催化。上週美方批準英偉達向中國銷售H20 芯片，有望進一步提升國內企業資本開支速度，疊加 Kimi K2 開源等重要事件，AI 行情出現新催化。
展望 2025 年下半年，港股市場下半年有望再創新高。中金公司力推三大板塊：
半導體及元器件：需求增長明確，AI 飛輪已形成正循環；海外大模型廠商資本開支計劃明確、國內模型迭代加速，雲端算力需求高增，同時端側 AI 硬件創新拉動相關芯片需求，預計下半年生成式 AI 技術有望深化滲透；疊加供給側競爭格局改善以及國產替代加速推進，有望共同構築半導體及元器件行業成長動能。行情端，預計結構性機會是主導，推薦偏左側週期向上板塊，以及受 AI 應用落地、AI 硬件驅動較強的板塊。
個股推薦：恆玄科技、瑞芯微、深南電路、中芯國際A/H、華虹半導體
消費電子：關注端側 AI 硬件升級趨勢。端側 AI 多類終端創新加速落地並逐步下沉，部分環節漸進式升級或將引領消費電子行業成長，建議關注 AI 手機硬件升級及加速滲透、AI 可穿戴新終端形態的創新、光學行業重啓升規升配三大投資機會。
個股推薦：藍思科技、工業富聯、舜宇光學、華勤技術和高偉電子
通信/安防：海內外算力需求有望持續利好光通信等算力基礎設施。中金建議關注：1)AI大模型向多模態方向演進，關注推理落地，驅動雲端硬件需求保持高景氣；2)國產算力提速；3)運營商資本開支平穩，關注 5GA、骨幹網升級等結構性機遇。
個股推薦：聯想集團、中際旭創、銳捷網絡、光迅科技、移遠通信。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
