《大行》美銀證券料能源股中期盈利穩定 降金風科技(02208.HK)評級至「中性」
美銀證券研究報告,料熱能發電企業次季盈利恢復將進一步強化,因有更多產出及單位燃料成本降幅擴大。當中預期華潤電力(00836.HK)中期純利符合預期,按年升16%至109億元,而華能國際電力(00902.HK)上半年純利按年升25%至74億元人民幣,次季增速或達35%,處於市場預期上限;料華電國際(01071.HK)上半年淨利潤按年升13%至33億元人民幣。
另外,該行料龍源電力(00916.HK)中期純利為32億元人民幣,意味次季按年跌12%,較首季跌幅21%有所收窄,主要基於去年同期低基數,但電價與利用小時數令盈利下行的趨勢未止,難以推動重估。至於長江電力(600900.SH)料上半年盈利按年升14%至130億元人民幣,符合預期,因發電量微增2%;市場關注其可能參與雅魯藏布江水電項目。
該行將金風科技(02208.HK)評級由「買入」降至「中性」,目標價7.8元,因風電銷售拖累情況可能延續至下半年,加上政策不確定性持續;料次季盈利按年跌43%至6億元人民幣。
燃氣方面,預期上半年華潤燃氣(01193.HK)淨利潤按年跌38%至21.5億港元;管理層或對下半年持謹慎態度,但中期及全年股息可能持平。料新奧能源(02688.HK)上半年核心利潤按年跌3%至31.6億元人民幣,北京控股(00392.HK)淨利潤持平,股息穩定。
該行又料長江基建(01038.HK)及粵海投資(00270.HK)盈利穩定,分別按年跌0.3%至43億港元及25億港元,中期息升1%;料中電(00002.HK)中期核心盈利按年下跌,因澳洲業務的高基數及陽江電價下調影響,但季度股息可能持平。料光大環境(00257.HK)淨利潤按年跌10至15%,北控水務(00371.HK)淨利潤跌15至20%,均因工程收入減少及非現金項目影響,但料中期股息穩定。
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