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《大行》匯豐研究降東方電氣(01072.HK)評級至「減持」 認為市場過份樂觀
匯豐研究發表報告,指日前內地正式公佈雅魯藏布江下游水電開發計劃,東方電氣H股(01072.HK)及A股(600875.SH)均大升,但該行料投資者或過份樂觀。從時間表而言,部分投資者預期水電渦輪機招標或於2027年啟動,但東方電氣及哈爾濱電氣(01133.HK)均透露2030年前啟動招標的可能性低,設備交付至少需時3至5年,收入確認最早也要到2033至2035年。 盈利方面,基於項目1.2萬億元人民幣的總投資額,有投資者推測相關渦輪機訂單價值超1,000億元人民幣。但即使以白鶴灘大壩機組溢價30%計算,該行料訂單總值僅550億元人民幣。對東方電氣而言,總收入及盈利影響分別為250億及25億元人民幣。若攤分四年確認,每年盈利增加約6億元人民幣,僅佔2025年盈利預測的16%。 另外,如將該項目未來十年的潛在現金流折現,H股及A股每股價值僅增加1.2港元及1.1元人民幣,遠低於近期升勢所反映的10.23港元及4.27元人民幣。目前H股相對A股出現溢價,估值亦已達歷史高峰。該行維持目標價12.3港元及19.3元人民幣不變,但評級從「持有」降至「減持」,並認為在2028年前,難以從雅魯藏布江計劃中目到實質催化劑。
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