《大行》瑞銀:水泥股偏好中國建材(03323.HK) 維持鋼鐵股「中性」評級
瑞銀發表報告,指西藏雅魯藏布江巨型水電項目預計裝機容量達60GW,為三峽大壩的2.7倍,總投資1.2萬億元人民幣,建設週期10至20年。根據瑞銀工業團隊及瑞銀行業專家評估,前期籌備工作已進行一至兩年。按15年建設期估算,首十年的場地準備及主體建設階段將集中消耗水泥與鋼材,後五年設備安裝與測試階段材料需求將顯著降低。
參照三峽大壩(消耗水泥1,600萬噸)並按2.7倍裝機容量推算,預計該項目總水泥需求達4,300萬噸,年均約430萬噸。增量需求僅佔中國年產能的0.2%,但將推升西藏地區水泥需求約33%。西藏天路(600326.SH)以33%市場佔有率主導當地市場,華新水泥(06655.HK)(600801.SH)、中國建材(03323.HK)及海螺水泥(00914.HK)(600585.SH)市場佔有率分別為25%、19%及7%。
按10年集中建設期及0.05系數(鋼材消耗量/水電固定資產投資)估算,該項目年均鋼材需求約60萬噸。其中普通鋼材(螺紋鋼、中厚板等)佔60%,用於壩體及道路建設;特殊鋼材(不鏽鋼、耐候鋼等)佔40%,用於水電核心部件及配套設施。與水泥不同,鋼材銷售口徑限制較小。
儘管市場情緒高漲,但該項目屬長期規劃,對覆蓋公司盈利的實質影響有限。假設水泥訂單按市場佔有率分配且噸毛利150元人民幣(下同)/噸,預計西藏天路年均獲利約1.6億元(相較2024年虧損1.04億元),華新水泥、中國建材及海螺水泥淨利潤增幅分別約5%、2%及0.4%。基於估值優勢,該行維持中建材「買入」評級,優於海螺水泥「中性」及華潤建材科技(01313.HK)「中性」評級,鋼鐵股整體評級保持「中性」。
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