《大行》瑞銀:物管股中期盈利增長料放緩至13% 首選綠城服務(02869.HK)
瑞銀發表研究報告指,中國物業管理商2025年上半年業績預期將持續放緩,預計平均盈利按年增幅將放緩至13%,低於2024年上半年的17%及2024年全年的14%增長,對比市場預期為15%,主要受到內地住宅市場放緩所拖累,令在管面積增長減慢、物業費收繳率下降、開發商增值服務減少及社區增值服務毛利率受壓。
該行列綠城服務(02869.HK)為行業首選,預計該公司中期盈利增幅將達到20%,跑贏同業;預測華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)、萬物雲(02602.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)及保利物業(06049.HK)上半年盈利將分別增長16%、11%、6%及5%,而碧桂園服務(06098.HK)中期盈利預料將下跌12%。
瑞銀認為,綠城服務採取獨立營運模式,將較少受到母公司所拖累,評級由「中性」上調至「買入」,並將目標價由4.5元升至5.7元。瑞銀又將華潤萬象生活2025至2027年核心盈利預測上調最多3%,憧憬中期業績將受惠於零售銷售及租金增長,將目標價由30元上調至38元,並重新給予「中性」評級。
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