嘉信理財:零售投資者對科技七雄興趣減弱 料美國今年減息兩次
嘉信理財香港發表中期市場展望,該行理財顧問郭明燊表示,市場雖預期經濟仍將錄得增長,但取態變得更為謹慎,投資者對企業盈利預期有所下調,考慮到現時美股市場估值處於較高水平,相信投資者會需要盈利增長以外的其他利好訊號,例如業績公布後管理層的前瞻性言論等,亦將左右投資者看法。他又指,企業首季表現勝預期,對未來幾季預測未感太樂觀。
嘉信理財香港理財顧問林長傑指,上半年市場情緒過分受到「科技七雄」(Magnificent 7)表現所影響,另發現零售投資者對科技七雄、AMD(AMD.US)與Netflix(NFLX.US)的持股興趣已逐步降至多年來低位,今年以來美股市場板塊持續輪動,幾乎沒有任何一個行業可蟬聯最受追捧板塊超過兩個星期。
市場目前預期關稅戰下進口成本上升,有機會導致通脹率攀升至近4%,拖累全球經濟增長表現。郭明燊指,現時預測美聯儲將於9月及12月減息共兩次,令基準利率降至4%,相信聯儲局仍維持終端利率降至3%的目標,但認為聯儲局政策存在高度不確定性,目前對2026年或以後利率走勢作長遠預測的參考價值不大。
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