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《大行》瑞銀料雅下水電項目佔內地水利管理全年支出4至6% 料對建設股收入影響有限
中資基建股今日抽上,中交建設(01800.HK)彈高7.4%報5.96元,中國中鐵(00390.HK)及中鐵建(01186.HK)各揚4.8%及5.7%。 瑞銀發表中國建設行業報告表示,中國國務院總理李強於上周六(19日)宣布雅魯藏布江下游水電項目正式開工。該項目包括建設五座梯級水電站,總投資約1.2萬億元人民幣。據該行了解,基礎設施準備工作自去年已開始,主要建設階段將隨後展開。該行料1.2萬億元人民幣投資中,約60-70%將用於項目建設(包括工程建設、設備、材料等),20%用於電力設備,其餘10-20%用於其他方面。假設項目投資週期為10-15年(參考三峽大壩建設耗時12年,同時考慮雅魯藏布江項目的更大複雜性和規模,以及中國建設能力的進步),該行認為年均投資約為800億至1,200億元人民幣,佔2025年中國基礎設施投資的0.3%至0.5%,以及水利管理投資的4至6%。該行預測2025年水利投資增長20%,遠超整體基礎設施投資5%的增長,反映政府對水利項目的戰略重視。 該行指,中國能源建設(03996.HK)和中國電建(601669.SH)是水電站主要建設工程的主要承包商,其他領先的基礎設施公司可能參與輔助基礎設施(如道路、橋樑、隧道)和配套設施的建設。該行預計領先基礎設施公司主要參與這些輔助和配套工程的建設,假設主要建設階段佔總項目成本的60-70%,且投資分攤10年,該行估計中國中鐵、中國交通建設和中鐵建在今明兩年增量收入預測貢獻將低於1%。 涉及的設備主要包括隧道掘進機、土方機械(挖掘機、裝載機)、混凝土機械、重型卡車、道路鋪設機械和鑽機。鑑於項目規模,該行認為需求將偏向中大型噸位設備。高海拔、低溫環境也要求設備具有高穩定性和耐用性。 儘管該行認為該水電項目對其覆蓋企業的收入影響有限,且國內整體基礎設施活動低於預期,但由於政策支持穩定增長,以及H股的潛在重新估值和高股息收益率(H股交易市賬率為0.2至0.3倍,2026年股息收益率約5-6%),該行對建築行業保持謹慎樂觀的看法。該行重申對中交建設及中國中鐵的「買入」評級,各予目標價6.5元及4.2元。(wl/u) ~
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