渣打料美元兌人民幣今年底溫和升值至7.35
渣打中國宏觀策略主管劉潔表示,上半年人民幣兌美元僅升值1.9%,主要因美元指數(DXY)創1973年以來最大上半年跌幅,且中國經濟增長與出口表現優於預期。然而,下半年基本面支撐減弱,反映人民幣可能溫和貶值,當中內地實際GDP增速或從上半年的5.3%放緩至下半年的4.5%,因財政刺激效應在上半年提前釋放後減弱。另外,中國出口增速或轉負,且貿易順差於上半年增長35%後可能回落。
該行下調美元兌人民幣匯率預測,將第三季末匯率預測由7.65降至7.25,年底匯率預測由7.75降至7.35,即較現時分別輕微貶值1.1%與2.5%。同時將2026年首季與次季預測由7.8下調至7.3至7.35,但維持2026年下半年7.2的預測不變。
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