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《大行》中金料交行、泡泡瑪特、百勝中國、小鵬汽車及京東物流等或可「染藍」
中金髮表報告表示,恆生指數公司將於8月22日收市後公佈恆生系列指數半年度審議結果(審議考察截止日期爲今年6月30日),涉及恆生、國企、恆生科技等港股主要旗艦指數,以及與港股通投資範圍密切相關的恆生綜指。由於半年度審議通常變化較大,且追蹤旗艦指數的被動資金規模大(綜合彭博與Wind的統計,追蹤恆指、國企和恆生科技指數的ETF規模分別約爲303.5億美元、66.3億美元和261.2億美元),因此潛在成分股變動以及相應資金流向值得重點關注。 基於現有可得公開數據,該行預覽潛在調整如下,供投資者參考。恆指調整:交通銀行(03328.HK)、泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)、信達生物(01801.HK)與百勝中國(09987.HK)等位列符合納入名單前列潛在調整候選:基於恆生指數調整方法,並通過此前多次實際調整結果對非量化主觀調整標準的理解和驗證,該行估算交通銀行、泡泡瑪特、百勝中國、小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)、華住集團-S(01179.HK)、京東物流(02618.HK)與信達生物等排在恆生指數順位前列,有可能成爲納入的潛在候選者。 該行的測算優先考慮市值順位,再結合各行業代表性與覆蓋率等因素綜合得出。基於上述預測,該行測算了相應個股可能的權重和資金流向。不過需要指出的是,歷史經驗表明實際結果可能與這一基於順位的篩選存在較大出入,例如信達生物與京東物流等在過去幾次的預測中都排在前列,但最終都未能被納入,主要可能是一些作爲指數諮詢委員決策依據的因素,如行業和上市地代表性等,但卻無詳細說明或量化依據,因此也不排除有其他非量化因素的考量影響最終決策。
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