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《大行》瑞銀升老鋪黃金(06181.HK)目標價至980元 評級「中性」
瑞銀髮表報告指,老鋪黃金(06181.HK)將公佈上半年業績,該行料收入、淨利潤及經調整淨利潤將分別按年增2.65倍、2.85倍及2.96倍,各至129億、23億及24億元人民幣。展望下半年,該行認爲市場對全年淨利潤55億元人民幣的預期仍然過高,若金價升勢放緩或停滯,將面臨下行風險。 該行估算公司庫存週轉期爲3個月,而由於1至4月金價上漲34%,而公司僅在2月時加價10%,料次季純金產品毛利率會較首季下跌。爲緩解毛利率壓力,該行預期公司下半年可能採取更積極的加價策略,包括上調舊款產品價格及推出更多高溢價的新產品。若金價升勢放緩,公司產品的性價比優勢或逐步削弱,最終考驗其產品與品牌的吸引力。 瑞銀又料老鋪黃金上半年及下半年分別開4間及5間新店,新店質量會較往年提升,並估計這些高端新店的產能可能是一般門店的的2至4倍,而開業促銷折扣將進一步推動業績。該行將目標價由900港元升至980港元,此按現金流折現率作估值,相當於預測今明兩年市盈率各33倍及25倍,維持「中性」評級,並將2025至2027年每股盈利預測上調25至35%。
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