研報掘金|中金:繼續看好銀行股上漲,H股銀行好於A股
中金早前發表報告指,內銀股連續上漲後的階段調整是適當,繼續看好銀行股上漲。從估值角度看,AH銀行股市淨率估值仍然低於過去十年以來的均值水平,不構成所謂漲多了的問題。上漲持續性可以綜合資產荒背景、高股息資產比價、配置機構負債成本、銀行業績穩定性等諸多約束條件等因素。
該行認爲H股銀行好於A股,第一是考慮保險投資港股的稅收優勢,更高的股息率決定了中期維度的兩地市場趨勢;第二是股息率高且穩定的股票,以大行爲例,中長期利潤預期差別較小,攤薄比例決定了未來股息率預期;第三是相同股息率水平,選擇業績穩定性更強的銀行股票。業績穩定性源自負債能力、區域紅利及組織效率等角度;第四是部分股份行,由公司治理效率提升帶來的alpha。
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