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《大行》大摩料內房持續受壓 上半年盈利平均下跌15%
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,預期中國房地產開發商盈利前景持續受壓,2025年上半年業績料維持疲弱,目前預測收入及盈利平均按年下跌約5%及15%,主要受到物業銷售入賬減少及毛利率收縮約3個百分點的拖累。 內地樓價持續下跌、庫存調整及資產減值拖累,大摩預期內房股銷售毛利率可能低於預期,雖然流動性風險及融資成本整體改善,但民營房企下半年前景仍未明,相信各企業將表現分化。其中建發國際(01908.HK)因交付利潤率微升或實現正增長,華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外發展(00688.HK)及金茂(00817.HK)盈利料錄個位數跌幅,龍湖(00960.HK)則因開發物業虧損擴大導致盈利或下跌逾40%。 大摩預料萬科(02202.HK)及金地集團(600383.SH)上半年將錄得淨虧損,相信投資者關注重點將轉向下半年預售及毛利率指引、樓價下跌帶來的資產減值壓力,以及商場租金收入表現,建議配置防守性股份,首選具消費概念的華潤置地及華潤萬象生活(01209.HK),以及能提供較高股息回報率的建發國際及綠城管理(09979.HK)。
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