《大行》瑞銀料長和(00001.HK)中期基本溢利按年升6% 目標價58.8元
瑞銀研究報告指,長和(00001.HK)預計將於8月中旬公布中期業績,該行預期上半年撇除一次性項目的基本溢利將按年增長6%至109億元,中期股息亦按年增加6%,主要受惠於港口與零售業務的穩健表現,以及美元年初至今疲弱,抵銷旗下能源公司Cenovus業務受油價下跌的負面影響。然而,帳面淨利潤可能受3英國電信合併完成後的一次性成本拖累,包括達86億元的匯兌損失及交易費用。該行現予目標價58.8元及「買入」評級。
報告指,預期上半年長和的港口業務在高基數下仍將保持強勁,EBITDA按年增長4%,主要受關稅生效前的運輸需求推動,帶動吞吐量增長與倉儲收入上升。零售業務方面,歐洲及其他亞洲地區的增長可抵銷香港與中國市場疲軟,EBITDA料按年增長3%。基礎建設業務EBITDA預計穩健增長2%,受惠於去年下半年2項新收購的貢獻。
長和的電訊業務方面,在激烈競爭下,預期經常性EBITDA將按年持平,但帳面EBITDA可能受3英國電信分拆的交易成本與重組費用影響。至於財務及其他業務,料WTI油價年初至今下跌6%或對旗下Cenovus構成壓力,以致基本EBITDA按年下滑4%。
報告又提到,貝萊德牽頭的BlackRock-TiL財團就長和港口交易的獨家談判權將於7月27日到期,而公司至今仍未公布任何進展。但即使獨家談判期結束後未見公告,亦不代表交易終止,可能是雙方仍在進行非獨家磋商。
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