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《大行》匯豐研究:百度(09888.HK)推出AI搜索拖累廣告增長 目標價降至74.1元 維持「持有」評級
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)加速推出AI搜索後,令廣告前景變得更具挑戰性,拖累利潤率,儘管無人駕駛出租車業務蘿蔔快跑進展穩定,但仍需時擴大收入。 另一方面,匯豐研究預計視頻娛樂直播業務YY Live財務的全面合併也將影響廣告增長,因爲YY Live的收入將被重新分類爲內部交易,故匯豐將百度2025至2027年核心廣告收入下調7%至12%,現在預計2025年核心廣告增長將下滑至13%,並在2026年逐漸恢復至2%的增長。 該行續指,儘管已考慮到2025年後續季度雲業務增長放緩,但目前將2025年雲業務收入下調1%,因匯豐預計基於項目的收入將在季度間出現更多波動。 展望今年第二季,匯豐研究預計百度核心廣告收入按年下降16%,雲收入按年增長24%。匯豐估計,百度核心業務調整後,營運利潤將按年下降30億元人民幣,至40億元人民幣。。 考慮上述因素及加權平均資本成本(WACC)變化後,匯豐將百度(BIDU.US)目標價從84美元下調至76美元,並維持「持有」評級,因爲無人駕駛計程車業務蘿蔔快跑的進展或推動估值重新評估;百度(09888.HK)目標價從81.9元下調至74.1元。
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