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大行評級|美銀:上調今年布油價格預測至每桶67美元 上調中石油及中石化目標價
美銀證券發佈研報,2025年第二季市場能源價格持續按季下降,其中中國動力煤及冶金煤價格分別下跌12%及9%,布倫特期油價格下跌11%,東北亞現貨液化天然氣(LNG)下跌12%。與此同時,受可再生能源替代、貿易衝突及刺激政策有限的影響,能源需求保持疲弱。美銀全球商品團隊近期將2025年布倫特原油平均價格預測上調至每桶67美元(此前為每桶65美元)。該行將中國石油2025及2026財年淨利潤預測分別上調16%及10%,至1570億元及1600億元,並將H股目標價由6.8港元上調至8港元,重申“買入”評級,理由包括:(1)天然氣業務增長支撐穩健盈利;(2)股息及回購提供可觀現金回報。美銀同時將中國石化2025及2026財年淨利潤預測分別上調1%及19%,至360億及490億元,並將H股目標價由4.7港元上調至4.8港元,重申“買入”評級,理由包括其估值吸引(2025財年預計市賬率0.6倍)、5.4%的可觀股息率,以及伊朗石油制裁可能解除的潛在利好。
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